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Prediction for CME (2023-06-23T00:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-23T00:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25683/-1
CME Note: Large mostly faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and after a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The source is an M4.8 class flare from AR13341 (S15E40) with southward deflection from the source. The flare is associated with brightening from a region to the south of the active region seen best in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2023-06-22T23:40Z with dimming around the same time seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211. Additionally, there is an EUV wave and moving/opening field lines visible to the SE in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-25T16:10Z (-11.69h, +12.82h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/06/23 00:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 07:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 11:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 3:40
POS Midpoint: 09:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.98
Travel Time: ~6.98 * 9:10 = 64:00

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-06-25T16:10Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 45.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-06-23T19:08Z

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